The July 2026 National Private Lenders Association (NPLA) Member Meeting discussed a broad market outlook, examining today’s lending environment and the forces shaping private lending through the remainder of 2026.
Ryan Shanberg, Ray Sturm, Eric Abramovich, Jon Hornik, and Ezra Dweck shared perspectives on capital markets, securitization, investor behavior, underwriting standards, credit performance, and where lenders should focus moving forward.
The discussion painted a picture of an industry that remains remarkably resilient despite slower transaction volume and continued economic uncertainty.
Capital Markets Remain Supportive
Although interest rates remain elevated and macroeconomic risks continue creating uncertainty, panelists agreed that capital availability remains surprisingly healthy.
Ryan Shanberg highlighted continued growth in securitization activity, expanding institutional participation, and strong liquidity despite slower loan production.
Markets have remained relatively supportive through the second quarter of 2026, with resilient housing prices, stable financing conditions, and abundant liquidity supporting the private lending sector.
Two Different Stories: RTL and DSCR
The panel described two very different lending environments.
Residential Transition Lending (RTL) is experiencing intense competition as transaction volume declines. Lenders are competing aggressively for fewer opportunities, creating significant pricing pressure.
Meanwhile, the DSCR market continues expanding, driven largely by consumer mortgage lenders entering the business-purpose lending space.
Presentation data showed RTL securitization activity slowing while DSCR securitizations continue growing rapidly.
Eric Abramovich described today’s environment as an “originator war,” with increasing competition across both products.
Institutional Investors Are Raising the Bar
One of the strongest themes throughout the discussion was the increasing sophistication of institutional investors.
Ray Sturm explained that investors are no longer simply purchasing pools of loans.
Today’s buyers closely evaluate:
Institutional-quality lenders with disciplined operations are earning stronger pricing and better access to capital, while inconsistent operations are seeing financing costs rise.
The Cost of Capital Is Beginning to Separate Lenders
The panel discussed a growing pricing gap between institutional-quality lenders and smaller operators.
In some cases, lenders with stronger documentation and cleaner operations are receiving financing more than 100 basis points lower than competitors.
The message was clear: operational quality is becoming just as important as loan production.
Credit Performance Remains Strong
Despite slower origination activity, panelists expressed confidence in current portfolio performance.
RTL delinquencies remain relatively benign, while DSCR portfolios continue performing well across most cohorts.
Presentation data reinforced that both RTL and DSCR have demonstrated resilient performance despite ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty.
Underwriting Discipline Matters More Than Ever
Eric Abramovich explained that many lenders have spent the past two years tightening underwriting standards rather than chasing volume.
Although fraud remains present, business-purpose lenders have become increasingly disciplined.
Panelists cautioned that newer entrants into private lending may underestimate the risks associated with business-purpose lending, making strong underwriting more important than ever.
AI and Technology Continue Changing Lending
Technology remained a recurring topic throughout the discussion.
Panelists noted that artificial intelligence is quickly becoming part of every lender’s operational strategy—from underwriting to servicing and portfolio management.
The presentation concluded by identifying AI investment as one of the major trends shaping the industry’s future.
Final Thoughts
Despite slower transaction volume, the panel remained optimistic about the long-term outlook for private lending.
As private lending continues to evolve, operational excellence—not simply loan volume—will increasingly determine who earns the best execution and the lowest cost of capital.
