At the National Private Lenders Association Member Meeting on May 21st, industry leaders gathered for a detailed discussion on the state of private lending, using insights from the April 2026 NPLA Private Lending Market Report to examine where the market is heading next.
Moderated by Jon Hornik, the panel featured Eric Abramovich, Roc Capital, Ray Sturm, Blue Lake, and Glenn Hull, SFR Analytics. The discussion focused on Q1 2026 origination trends, geographic lending shifts, underwriting discipline, foreclosure activity, and how lenders are adapting to a higher-rate environment.
The panel opened with one major headline: Q1 2026 was the strongest first quarter on record for private lending, with combined RTL and DSCR originations reaching nearly $30 billion, up roughly 4% year over year.
However, panelists agreed that the data beneath the headline tells a far more nuanced story.
Eric Abramovich explained that measuring the RTL and bridge lending market remains difficult because much of the available data is delayed or incomplete. Public records often fail to clearly identify loan types, forcing analysts and lenders to combine multiple data sources — including loan origination systems, securitization data, public filings, and direct lender feedback — to understand what is truly happening in the market.
According to Eric, DSCR and non-QM lending continue to grow rapidly, while RTL volumes are relatively flat or slightly down year over year. He also noted that competition within RTL lending has become increasingly aggressive, with lenders fighting hard for fewer opportunities in a slower transaction environment.
Ray Sturm said many of the trends his team is seeing align with Eric’s observations, but he views the current market more as a behavioral shift than a credit problem. He explained that many investors who were previously focused on buy-and-hold rental strategies are now returning to fix-and-flip opportunities while waiting for cap rates and broader market conditions to improve.
Ray emphasized that capital remains widely available for RTL deals and that investors are still actively deploying money. At the same time, he warned that some lenders may begin loosening credit standards as they compete for volume and attempt to grow market share again. Despite those concerns, he described today’s market as more of a “waiting market” than a distressed one.
Glenn Hull added another layer to the discussion by pointing out that how firms define the private lending market can significantly change the data. He explained that when large non-QM consumer lenders are separated from traditional private lenders, DSCR growth appears much flatter than many headlines suggest. Glenn also noted that competition in RTL lending, particularly on the West Coast, has intensified as lenders compress pricing and margins to win deals.
The conversation then shifted toward geography and where lenders are currently seeing the strongest activity.
Glenn said Florida is slowing overall, but the state remains highly market-specific. Areas such as Cape Coral and Punta Gorda are seeing more significant pullbacks, while cities like Miami and Tampa have remained relatively stable. He also highlighted continued growth in lower-priced Midwest and Rust Belt markets, where lending activity remains active, and investor demand continues to increase.
Ray agreed, noting that investors are becoming increasingly selective and focused on hyper-local opportunities rather than broad regional trends. He pointed to markets such as Kansas City, Cleveland, Rockford, and Birmingham as areas his team continues to watch closely. Ray also stressed that many lenders are finding success in Midwest “flyover” states that are often overlooked by institutional capital.
Eric added that some Florida markets may finally be stabilizing after substantial pricing corrections, particularly in Southwest Florida. However, he warned that aggressive lending practices and overbuilding in certain markets could still create challenges moving forward. He also questioned some broader assumptions about long-term housing shortages, pointing to demographic shifts, aging homeowners, and slowing population growth as factors that could eventually affect housing demand.
As the discussion turned toward interest rates and the broader economy, Jon Hornik raised questions about persistent inflation, elevated rates, and what lenders should expect over the next six to twelve months.
Eric responded that the economy is currently facing both inflationary and disinflationary pressures. While geopolitical tensions and energy markets remain concerns, he also believes artificial intelligence could become one of the largest disinflationary forces the economy has ever seen by improving efficiency and reducing costs across industries.
Ray, meanwhile, said he does not expect meaningful rate cuts anytime soon and believes lenders should prepare for a prolonged period of higher rates. He explained that inflation, oil prices, and bond market pressures are keeping rates elevated, forcing lenders and investors to pay closer attention to construction costs, valuations, and deal economics.
The panel also spent significant time discussing underwriting discipline and borrower quality.
Glenn noted that borrower quality today appears significantly stronger than it was during the 2020–2022 period. He believes most current lending activity is being driven by experienced operators running real businesses rather than inexperienced investors chasing appreciation.
Ray added that many lenders are increasingly prioritizing repeat borrowers with long-standing track records. In a more uncertain market, lenders are “running toward safety” by deploying more capital with borrowers they already know and trust rather than stretching for new relationships.
Eric expressed concern that some parts of the industry may still be becoming too aggressive, particularly around 100% LTC lending and automated underwriting decisions. He warned that chasing volume at the expense of discipline could eventually create problems if market conditions weaken further.
Foreclosure and delinquency trends were another major focus of the discussion.
Glenn explained that foreclosure data remains highly market-specific and inherently lagging, especially in Florida, where many of today’s problem loans originated during the 2022 and 2023 lending boom. Still, he said, overall foreclosure activity remains relatively controlled, with no signs of widespread distress.
Ray agreed, describing today’s market as more “normalized” than distressed. He said a large amount of distressed capital and MPL funds remain available, providing liquidity for troubled deals and helping prevent widespread disruption. He also emphasized that fraud — particularly title fraud and project execution issues — remains one of the biggest concerns lenders are monitoring.
The panel concluded with a discussion of loan extensions and projects that are taking longer to complete. Ray explained that while more borrowers are requesting extensions, many deals still work economically once completed. Rather than forcing sales into weaker markets, many lenders are helping borrowers refinance completed projects into DSCR rental loans as a more stable exit strategy.
Throughout the discussion, one theme remained consistent: while the private lending market is facing more complexity, competition, and uncertainty, panelists largely agreed the industry remains disciplined, capitalized, and active. The market may be slowing in certain regions and shifting across product types, but experienced operators and lenders continue finding opportunities in a higher-rate environment.
For more information about the National Private Lenders Association, contact Amy Kame at [email protected].
